El futuro de Europa
El rechazo al inmigrante llega a Finlandia
El partido populista que triunfó en los pasados comicios pone fin a la tradicional corrección política - Los extranjeros constituyen apenas el 3%
ANA CARBAJOSA (ENVIADA ESPECIAL) - Helsinki - 22/04/2011
Hay veces que los discursos de los políticos poco tienen que ver con las preocupaciones de los ciudadanos. Hay otras en las que los políticos son capaces de crear con sus mensajes nuevas realidades y problemas hasta entonces inexistentes. Es lo que ha sucedido en Finlandia, un país con un número de inmigrantes muy reducido -en torno al 3% de la población- y sin grandes conflictos interculturales, en el que la inmigración ha ocupado un lugar central en el debate previo a las elecciones del pasado domingo.
"Ahora hay mucha tensión, esto es nuevo", asegura un somalí
"Que les pongan un sello en la frente y los devuelvan a su país", dice un nativo
De los atriles de los políticos ha saltado a la calle, donde se escucha una retórica antiinmigración inimaginable hasta hace bien poco en el país de la tolerancia y la corrección política. Auténticos Finlandeses, el partido populista que ha multiplicado por ocho su número de escaños, ha sido el encargado de inundar la campaña de mensajes antiinmigración con un lenguaje claro y directo que ha seducido a parte del electorado.
Es en los barrios del este de Helsinki, los más empobrecidos y en los que se concentra un mayor número de inmigrantes, donde la tensión es más palpable. Allí, nativos y recién llegados, más o menos recientes, compiten por los recursos de un Estado generoso, pero que nunca reparte a gusto de todos.
Itakeskus es uno de esos barrios. Allí, en una cafetería regentada por un somalí, se dan cita Abdul Bari Yusef y sus compatriotas para comer arroz con carne picante con las manos, ver las noticias que retransmite el canal panárabe Al Yazira y charlar un rato. "Ahora hay mucha tensión en la atmósfera. Esto es nuevo para nosotros los extranjeros. Lo vivimos como una amenaza, porque no sabemos qué va a pasar después de las elecciones [y el consiguiente ascenso de los populistas], si van a cambiar las leyes y cómo", dice Yusef, un joven mediador somalí que llegó a Finlandia a principios de los noventa, cuando apenas se veían negros por las calles de Helsinki.
Hoy, los somalíes son la tercera comunidad extranjera más numerosa -después de los rusos y los estonios- y sin duda la más estigmatizada y discriminada. Cuenta Yusef que hoy mismo, un hombre le ha lanzado un mensaje amenazador desde la ventanilla de su coche en un semáforo: "Jodido negro, se te está acabando el tiempo". Como numerosos analistas, Yusef cree que tras las pasadas elecciones se ha propagado un sentimiento antiinmigración, después de que los Auténticos Finlandeses exigieran machaconamente restricciones, por ejemplo, a la reunificación familiar de los inmigrantes.
Un par de paradas de metro más allá, cerca de la conocida como avenida de Mogadiscio, unos jóvenes desempleados ilustran con claridad las teorías de Yusef. "Yo no soy racista, pero lo cierto es que a los negros les dan subsidios y a nosotros nada. Por mí, que les pongan un sello en la frente y los devuelvan a su país", dice Topi Jokinen, quien perdió su empleo en un astillero y ahora malvive como puede.
A su lado, otro joven, con chándal gris, cuello tatuado y una botella de vodka en la mano, echa un trago a las once de la mañana para aclarar la garganta antes de hablar. "Mire, a mí no me gustan los somalíes. ¿Por qué tienen que venir aquí a quitarnos el trabajo?", se pregunta este hombre, que dice haber votado a los Auténticos Finlandeses.
Escuchar argumentos como estos, en voz alta y en plena calle, constituye una auténtica novedad en este país, explican los expertos. "Cuestionar la llegada de inmigrantes y refugiados es algo que estaba latente, pero ahora, a pesar de nuestra tradición de corrección política, se ha convertido en aceptable hablar de ello", explica Katja Vilkama, investigadora de la Universidad de Helsinki especializada en temas de segregación urbana. "Los Auténticos Finlandeses han pedido que se pongan trabas a la reunificación familiar y, aunque han sido muy cuidadosos con las palabras, han sabido despertar las emociones de muchos finlandeses", añade.
Al margen de estrategias electorales, los expertos explican que parte del rechazo a los inmigrantes tiene que ver también con la historia del país y piensan que tal vez era solo cuestión de tiempo que el debate migratorio aterrizara en Finlandia como lo ha hecho en otros países nórdicos. Los inmigrantes y refugiados comenzaron a llegar a principios de los noventa, en oleadas que coincidieron con el colapso de la Unión Soviética primero y con conflictos como el de Somalia después. Pese a que hoy todavía son muy pocos comparados con los que acogen países como Suecia o Noruega, su llegada a Finlandia se ha producido en un periodo corto de tiempo y se ha concentrado en las ciudades. Los inmigrantes han desembarcado además en un país muy homogéneo -tal vez con la excepción de la minoría suecohablante, el 5%-, donde la población no estaba acostumbrada a tratar con gente de distinta religión o color de piel.
Creen los observadores que aún es pronto para extraer conclusiones y que la prueba de fuego que determinará el grado de integración y de rechazo a los extranjeros será la segunda generación de inmigrantes, los que han nacido y estudiado en Finlandia y que pronto saldrán al mercado laboral. Es cuando se verá, dicen, si el admirado modelo social finlandés funciona también para los inmigrantes.
OS FINLANDESES SÓ TÊM 3% E JÁ ELEGERAM UM PARTIDO XENÓFOBO NA 3ª POSIÇÃO.POR CÁ TEMOS DE CERTEZA 10% E OS XENÓFOBOS ESTÃO PRESOS...
MAS ISSO DE ANDAREM A NACIONALIZAR OS AFRICANOS, A LEGALIZA-LOS PARA POSTERIOR EXPORTAÇÃO PARA A EUROPA TEM OS DIAS CONTADOS.É QUE AINDA VÃO ACABAR POR TÊ-LOS TODOS DE VOLTA...
O ESTADO ESTÁ MINADO PELA INDÚSTRIA DO PASSAPORTE E PELA TRAIÇÃO.QUE NOS AFRICANIZA E NOS NIVELA POR ÁFRICA.
TUDO FEITO PELOS GAJOS QUE FORAM DESCOLONIZADORES SEM DIREITOS MAS QUE AGORA DISCRIMINAM POSITIVAMENTE OS QUE NOS EXPULSARAM SEM BENS...SE ISTO NÃO É TRAIÇÃO DIGAM LÁ COMO SE CHAMA, TENDO EM ATENÇÃO QUE AOS PORTUGUESES NINGUÉM DÁ EM RECIPROCIDADE NADA DO QUE AQUI NOS OBRIGAM A PAGAR...E NOS COLOCOU DE JOELHOS PERANTE TODO O MUNDO...
PERTENCE CERTAMENTE AO submundo da blogosfera DE ACORDO COM CIENTÍFICAS CLASSIFICAÇÕES DUNS GAJOS QUE VIVEM DOS MEUS IMPOSTOS E ANDAM A AFUNDAR PORTUGAL
Friday, April 22, 2011
Thursday, April 21, 2011
POR CÁ O SOCIALISMO INTERNACIONALISTA CONTINUA VIÇOSO SEJA QUAL FOR O ARCO DO PODER...
2012 : un sondage donne Le Pen au second tour quel que soit le candidat
Parmi les candidats socialistes testés, seul DSK arriverait devant la présidente du Front national au premier tour. Nicolas Sarkozy serait éliminé dès le 1er tour dans trois cas sur quatre.
O NIVELAMENTO POR ÁFRICA CONTINUA A SER GARANTIDO.A SALVAÇÃO DO PLANETA EM PRIMEIRO LUGAR...
Parmi les candidats socialistes testés, seul DSK arriverait devant la présidente du Front national au premier tour. Nicolas Sarkozy serait éliminé dès le 1er tour dans trois cas sur quatre.
O NIVELAMENTO POR ÁFRICA CONTINUA A SER GARANTIDO.A SALVAÇÃO DO PLANETA EM PRIMEIRO LUGAR...
E OS 170 MIL MILHÕES DE EUROS DA "DÍVIDA" DO ESTADO QUANTO VALEM?
Reservas de ouro portuguesas já valem 12,5 mil milhões de euros
As reservas de ouro que o Banco de Portugal detém valiam, no final de Fevereiro, 12.532 milhões de euros, reflectindo a escalada de preços que o metal precioso tem vindo a registar.
AS "RESERVAS" NEM PARA UM ANO DÃO.TAL O DESCALABRO DAS "CONQUISTAS" A CRÉDITO...EM ESPECIAL A "SALVAÇÃO DO PLANETA" POR NOSSA CONTA.PARA ALÉM DOS "PEDREIROS" QUE SE TÊM AMANHADO MUITO BEM...
As reservas de ouro que o Banco de Portugal detém valiam, no final de Fevereiro, 12.532 milhões de euros, reflectindo a escalada de preços que o metal precioso tem vindo a registar.
AS "RESERVAS" NEM PARA UM ANO DÃO.TAL O DESCALABRO DAS "CONQUISTAS" A CRÉDITO...EM ESPECIAL A "SALVAÇÃO DO PLANETA" POR NOSSA CONTA.PARA ALÉM DOS "PEDREIROS" QUE SE TÊM AMANHADO MUITO BEM...
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
ENTÃO A IMIGRAÇÃO AFRICANA NACIONALIZADA PARA O PLANO TECNOLÓGICO JÁ NÃO SERVE?
quarta-feira, 20 de Abril de 2011 | 18:21
Desemprego de longa duração é devido a baixas qualificações
Portugal era em 2010 o país da OCDE com maior percentagem de desempregados de longa duração, porque «é o país com taxas de qualificação mais baixas», defendeu hoje o secretário de Estado do Emprego e da Formação Profissional.
Depois de ter sido divulgado um estudo da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE) que diz que, em Portugal, mais de 50 por cento do total de desempregados era de longa duração, Valter Lemos afirmou que «a crise tem tido como consequência principal o aumento do desemprego de longa duração, porque os setores mais afetados pela crise são de baixa qualificação».
Em declarações à Lusa à margem da visita à Salvador Caetano, o secretário de Estado realçou que «o esforço de qualificação dos desempregados é fundamental, porque há desempregados baixamente qualificados quando hoje a economia requer trabalhadores mais qualificados».
COM O FIM DOS "EMPRÉSTIMOS" PARA FAZER MAIS UMAS AUTOESTRADAS E TGV´S E REMODELAR ESCOLAS AINDA FUNCIONAIS O QUE É QUE A RAPAZIADA VAI FAZER?VIVER NO BAIRRO SOCIAL SEMPRE POR NOSSA CONTA?OU SERÁ QUE ELES VINHAM MAIS PREPARADOS DO QUE O INDIGENATO QUE DEIXOU DE TRABALHAR FACE AO SALÁRIO DE "AFRICANO"?
ESTÃO A VER EM COMO TINHA SIDO MELHOR NEM HAVER GOVERNO'PARA FAZEREM PORCARIAS DESTAS QUALQUER UM SABERIA GOVERNAR...E SEM SE GOVERNAR!
Desemprego de longa duração é devido a baixas qualificações
Portugal era em 2010 o país da OCDE com maior percentagem de desempregados de longa duração, porque «é o país com taxas de qualificação mais baixas», defendeu hoje o secretário de Estado do Emprego e da Formação Profissional.
Depois de ter sido divulgado um estudo da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE) que diz que, em Portugal, mais de 50 por cento do total de desempregados era de longa duração, Valter Lemos afirmou que «a crise tem tido como consequência principal o aumento do desemprego de longa duração, porque os setores mais afetados pela crise são de baixa qualificação».
Em declarações à Lusa à margem da visita à Salvador Caetano, o secretário de Estado realçou que «o esforço de qualificação dos desempregados é fundamental, porque há desempregados baixamente qualificados quando hoje a economia requer trabalhadores mais qualificados».
COM O FIM DOS "EMPRÉSTIMOS" PARA FAZER MAIS UMAS AUTOESTRADAS E TGV´S E REMODELAR ESCOLAS AINDA FUNCIONAIS O QUE É QUE A RAPAZIADA VAI FAZER?VIVER NO BAIRRO SOCIAL SEMPRE POR NOSSA CONTA?OU SERÁ QUE ELES VINHAM MAIS PREPARADOS DO QUE O INDIGENATO QUE DEIXOU DE TRABALHAR FACE AO SALÁRIO DE "AFRICANO"?
ESTÃO A VER EM COMO TINHA SIDO MELHOR NEM HAVER GOVERNO'PARA FAZEREM PORCARIAS DESTAS QUALQUER UM SABERIA GOVERNAR...E SEM SE GOVERNAR!
A CORRUPÇÃO COM OS PEDREIROS PARA FINS IMPRODUTIVOS E A AFRICANIZAÇÃO HUMILHAM PORTUGAL
04/19/2011
Triumph of Right-Wing Populists
How Dangerous Is Finland to the Euro?
An Analysis by Sven Böll and Maria Marquart
True Finns party boss Timo Soini: Sunday's election in Finland wasn't a great day for Europe.
Will the election of right-wing populists in Finland derail the euro rescue package? A Helsinki veto would indeed be expensive for the rest of the euro zone, particularly for Germany. Experts are also warning that other European countries may follow suit if Finland decides to pull out of the euro bailout.
Info
Across the 17-member euro zone, government heads had a hunch April 17 might not be a very good day for the future of Europe. The strong ballot box performance of the euroskeptic True Finns means it is very likely the party will be part of the next government. It appears that a country long seen as an EU anchor may soon become a source of irritation for Brussels and in capitals across the bloc.
During the election campaign, True Finn party head Timo Soini lashed out repeatedly against the European Union and bailout plans for debt-ridden euro-zone members. Bolstered by an election that saw the party more than quadruple its standing, with 19 percent of the vote, an emboldened Soini remained vocal on Monday, saying it was unacceptable that Finland "must pay for the mistakes of others." And that "the content of politics must change. We have been too soft on Europe."
Does the party represent a threat to the common European project? Do Finland's right-wing populists truly have the power to bring the euro to its knees? Or does it merely have the capacity to create a threat to the euro's stability and thus protract the current currency crisis?
If the party becomes part of Finland's next government, that answer could come within a matter of weeks. A coalition between the conservatives, who drew the most votes, the opposition Social Democrats and the True Finns is one viable option currently being discussed.
Will Remainder of Euro Zone Be Left to Foot the Bill?
Under current euro-zone rules, all 17 members must approve bailout packages for countries in need -- and next month, an €80 billion package for Portugal is up for approval. During the campaign, Finland's major parties said they wouldn't form a governing coalition with the True Finns if doing so would create a threat to the future of Europe's common currency. As such, it seems likely that, should the True Finns join the government, the party's euro-critical positions will be watered down. It remains possible, however, that a future Helsinki coalition could refrain from vetoing a bailout package for Portugal, but would then refuse to provide funding.
Were Finland to back out of any future rescue packages, it would have a significant impact on the common currency. The timing is bad, too, given that Europeans are currently faced with three euro-related problems that need to be solved at the same time:
The temporary euro rescue fund (EFSF), valid until 2013, needs to be expanded.
The permanent crisis mechanism (ESM), intended to replace EFSF starting in 2013, needs to be formally agreed to.
Financial aid to Portugal needs to be released.
Within the framework of the temporary rescue fund, all 17 euro-zone member states are providing credit guarantees valued at a total of €400 billion ($579 billion). In order to preserve the highest possible credit rating for the fund, however, a maximum of €250 billion from the fund can be lent to troubled euro-zone countries. Euro-zone leaders are now discussing nearly doubling the sum of money that is actually lendable as quickly as possible so that €440 billion can be disbursed in emergencies. That will be crucial if, following Ireland and Portugal, larger EU countries like Spain require bailouts in the future.
Looking ahead to elections in Finland, EU leaders in March delayed a final decision on the expansion of the existing bailout fund until June, well after Finns would go to the polls.
Finnish Pullout Would Be 'Politically Uncomfortable'
It is now possible that if the right-wing populists with the Real Finns party join the government, that a deal will be blocked by Finland or that the Finns place additional hurdles before passage. Helsinki is currently responsible for providing credits valuing €7.9 billion, representing a share of about 1.8 percent of the EFSF. Under the current deal, Finland would also have to increase its credit guarantees in proportion to its shares in the EFSF. By comparison, Germany is covering around 28 percent of the total sum. At €119.4 billion, that figure is almost 15 times greater than Finland's.
If the Finns decide not to take part in the expansion of EFSF, then other countries would have to plug the gap. Daniel Gros of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies, however, says this wouldn't be a major problem. Still, he says "it would then be politically uncomfortable" because if one country decided to stop supporting the rescue program, others might soon follow suit.
Nevertheless, throughout its history, individual countries have demanded exceptions on a number of issues and the European Union has still managed to get by. Slovakia and the other new EU member states, for example, have been given a sort of discount on the amount they are required to put up for the permanent ESM rescue fund. The countries had complained because they felt they were being overly burdened by the bailout.
A Finnish 'No' Could Get Expensive for Germany
But the effect of a Finnish withdrawal would be greater on Germany than it would be on most other euro-zone member states. Germany and Finland, together with France, the Netherlands and Austria, are the only countries in the euro zone that possess the best possible rating, Triple A, from the ratings agencies. If one of these countries with the best credit ratings ceases to participate, the additional burden would likely fall on the other countries with Triple A ratings and not on countries with lesser ratings such as Estonia or Malta.
It could also create problems for the permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is expected to replace the temporary rescue package in 2013. ESM is intended to be able to loan a maximum of €500 billion. In order to be able to loan that much, the euro-zone states would have to put €700 billion into the fund. And in order to obtain the highest rating from ratings agencies, ESM would have to include credit guarantees totalling €620 billion. As security collateral, it would also have to include €80 billion in cash.
That would mean the first infusion of actual cash from taxpayers into a rescue fund since the start of the euro crisis. All of the bailout measures undertaken so far have been covered with credit guarantees, with the exposure to taxpayers existing only on paper -- at least until a country fails to repay its loans. But whereas Germany will have a share of 27.1 percent of the ESM, meaning €168 billion and €22 billion in cash reserves, Finland's share is also relatively small. The government would have to provide €11.1 billion in guarantees and €1.4 billion in cash. If the True Finns party becomes part of the coalition, it is conceivable that the Finnish government would either not participate in EFSF or ESM or that it will want to reduce its participation.
Threats from Finnland Create Uncertainty on Markets
Close attention is being paid by the financial markets to the political tug o' war. "So far, there has already been a tendency towards palpable skepticism about further aid in the donor nations," analysts at Germany's Commerzbank have written. With the election victory of the euro critics, the bank's analysts write, the risk has increased "that a donor country will pull out of the rescue mechanism." They add: "A pullout by the Finns would mean more than a termination of solidarity because the agreement of all 17 euro-zone members is required to approve aid."
The analysts are referring to an important means of pressure the Finns have at their disposal. In order for the ESM to go into effect, the Treaty of Lisbon, which governs the workings of the EU, must be modified. The change would not require countries to cede sovereignty on any additional issues to the EU, but it would nevertheless require ratification by the national parliaments of member states, including the Eduskunta in Helsinki.
So the future Finnish government actually does have the ability to block the increased funding of the EFSF and the creation of the ESM. But that remains speculative at this stage. Ognian Hishow, an expert on EU integration at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), doesn't believe that Finland would withdraw from the currency union or the EU. "Finnish companies wouldn't tolerate that," he said, adding that the financial risks would be too great. "Finland has so far done well with the euro," Hishow said. "Reason will prevail in the end."
'Overall Political Picture in Europe Has Worsened'
Nonetheless, the Finns could stir up trouble in terms of disbursing financial aid for Portugal. A unanimous decision is required by all euro-zone finance ministers in order to disburse loans under the current EFSF agreement. This is expected to take place in May. In the worst-case scenario, this would provide the Finnish finance minister with an opportunity to strike. He could demand that Finland would only agree to the bailout if Helsinki didn't have to participate financially.
Given the relatively small, single-digit billion volume of Finland's share of the bailout, this quasi veto power probably wouldn't threaten Portugal's bailout. But economist Gros at Center for European Policy Studies argues that the political symbolism of a pullout would be important, especially if other countries followed suit -- particularly countries that have been leaders in a united Europe until now. Gros says it could create huge problems if sentiment like that crossed over into Germany.
"The overall political picture in Europe has worsened," Gros said.
METADE DO PAÍS A VIVER DE EXPEDIENTES À CUSTA DO CONTRIBUINTE,UM ENORME MONTANTE DE POLÍTICOS, ASSESSORES, COMENTADORES, MEIA DÚZIA DE EMPRESAS DE CONSTRUÇÃO.E UM PAÍS SEM TÉCNICOS PORQUE EXTINGUIRAM O ENSINO TÉCNICO SALAZARISTA QUE ERA O ALFOBRE DO EMPREENDEDORISMO E EM SEU LUGAR E COM FARTURA CURSOS DE HUMANIDADES SEM EMPREGABILIDADE NENHUMA A NÃO SER NO "ESTADO" QUE TEM CRESCIDO E CRESCIDO...
QUASE NADA SE PRODUZ E EXPORTA.É TUDO DOUTORES.MENOS NA MEDICINA QUE ATÉ AÍ A CORRUPÇÃO ENTROU...O QUE SAI CARÍSSIMO AO PAÍS.
NÃO MUDEM DE REGIME NÃO.ESTES NÃO PRESTAM.VENHAM OUTROS E COM OUTRA CONSTITUIÇÃO.A DE 1933 FOI DE UM BOM ANO DE VINHO...
E SÓ COM UM NOVO 25 DE NOVEMBRO A COISA ENDIREITA...
Triumph of Right-Wing Populists
How Dangerous Is Finland to the Euro?
An Analysis by Sven Böll and Maria Marquart
True Finns party boss Timo Soini: Sunday's election in Finland wasn't a great day for Europe.
Will the election of right-wing populists in Finland derail the euro rescue package? A Helsinki veto would indeed be expensive for the rest of the euro zone, particularly for Germany. Experts are also warning that other European countries may follow suit if Finland decides to pull out of the euro bailout.
Info
Across the 17-member euro zone, government heads had a hunch April 17 might not be a very good day for the future of Europe. The strong ballot box performance of the euroskeptic True Finns means it is very likely the party will be part of the next government. It appears that a country long seen as an EU anchor may soon become a source of irritation for Brussels and in capitals across the bloc.
During the election campaign, True Finn party head Timo Soini lashed out repeatedly against the European Union and bailout plans for debt-ridden euro-zone members. Bolstered by an election that saw the party more than quadruple its standing, with 19 percent of the vote, an emboldened Soini remained vocal on Monday, saying it was unacceptable that Finland "must pay for the mistakes of others." And that "the content of politics must change. We have been too soft on Europe."
Does the party represent a threat to the common European project? Do Finland's right-wing populists truly have the power to bring the euro to its knees? Or does it merely have the capacity to create a threat to the euro's stability and thus protract the current currency crisis?
If the party becomes part of Finland's next government, that answer could come within a matter of weeks. A coalition between the conservatives, who drew the most votes, the opposition Social Democrats and the True Finns is one viable option currently being discussed.
Will Remainder of Euro Zone Be Left to Foot the Bill?
Under current euro-zone rules, all 17 members must approve bailout packages for countries in need -- and next month, an €80 billion package for Portugal is up for approval. During the campaign, Finland's major parties said they wouldn't form a governing coalition with the True Finns if doing so would create a threat to the future of Europe's common currency. As such, it seems likely that, should the True Finns join the government, the party's euro-critical positions will be watered down. It remains possible, however, that a future Helsinki coalition could refrain from vetoing a bailout package for Portugal, but would then refuse to provide funding.
Were Finland to back out of any future rescue packages, it would have a significant impact on the common currency. The timing is bad, too, given that Europeans are currently faced with three euro-related problems that need to be solved at the same time:
The temporary euro rescue fund (EFSF), valid until 2013, needs to be expanded.
The permanent crisis mechanism (ESM), intended to replace EFSF starting in 2013, needs to be formally agreed to.
Financial aid to Portugal needs to be released.
Within the framework of the temporary rescue fund, all 17 euro-zone member states are providing credit guarantees valued at a total of €400 billion ($579 billion). In order to preserve the highest possible credit rating for the fund, however, a maximum of €250 billion from the fund can be lent to troubled euro-zone countries. Euro-zone leaders are now discussing nearly doubling the sum of money that is actually lendable as quickly as possible so that €440 billion can be disbursed in emergencies. That will be crucial if, following Ireland and Portugal, larger EU countries like Spain require bailouts in the future.
Looking ahead to elections in Finland, EU leaders in March delayed a final decision on the expansion of the existing bailout fund until June, well after Finns would go to the polls.
Finnish Pullout Would Be 'Politically Uncomfortable'
It is now possible that if the right-wing populists with the Real Finns party join the government, that a deal will be blocked by Finland or that the Finns place additional hurdles before passage. Helsinki is currently responsible for providing credits valuing €7.9 billion, representing a share of about 1.8 percent of the EFSF. Under the current deal, Finland would also have to increase its credit guarantees in proportion to its shares in the EFSF. By comparison, Germany is covering around 28 percent of the total sum. At €119.4 billion, that figure is almost 15 times greater than Finland's.
If the Finns decide not to take part in the expansion of EFSF, then other countries would have to plug the gap. Daniel Gros of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies, however, says this wouldn't be a major problem. Still, he says "it would then be politically uncomfortable" because if one country decided to stop supporting the rescue program, others might soon follow suit.
Nevertheless, throughout its history, individual countries have demanded exceptions on a number of issues and the European Union has still managed to get by. Slovakia and the other new EU member states, for example, have been given a sort of discount on the amount they are required to put up for the permanent ESM rescue fund. The countries had complained because they felt they were being overly burdened by the bailout.
A Finnish 'No' Could Get Expensive for Germany
But the effect of a Finnish withdrawal would be greater on Germany than it would be on most other euro-zone member states. Germany and Finland, together with France, the Netherlands and Austria, are the only countries in the euro zone that possess the best possible rating, Triple A, from the ratings agencies. If one of these countries with the best credit ratings ceases to participate, the additional burden would likely fall on the other countries with Triple A ratings and not on countries with lesser ratings such as Estonia or Malta.
It could also create problems for the permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is expected to replace the temporary rescue package in 2013. ESM is intended to be able to loan a maximum of €500 billion. In order to be able to loan that much, the euro-zone states would have to put €700 billion into the fund. And in order to obtain the highest rating from ratings agencies, ESM would have to include credit guarantees totalling €620 billion. As security collateral, it would also have to include €80 billion in cash.
That would mean the first infusion of actual cash from taxpayers into a rescue fund since the start of the euro crisis. All of the bailout measures undertaken so far have been covered with credit guarantees, with the exposure to taxpayers existing only on paper -- at least until a country fails to repay its loans. But whereas Germany will have a share of 27.1 percent of the ESM, meaning €168 billion and €22 billion in cash reserves, Finland's share is also relatively small. The government would have to provide €11.1 billion in guarantees and €1.4 billion in cash. If the True Finns party becomes part of the coalition, it is conceivable that the Finnish government would either not participate in EFSF or ESM or that it will want to reduce its participation.
Threats from Finnland Create Uncertainty on Markets
Close attention is being paid by the financial markets to the political tug o' war. "So far, there has already been a tendency towards palpable skepticism about further aid in the donor nations," analysts at Germany's Commerzbank have written. With the election victory of the euro critics, the bank's analysts write, the risk has increased "that a donor country will pull out of the rescue mechanism." They add: "A pullout by the Finns would mean more than a termination of solidarity because the agreement of all 17 euro-zone members is required to approve aid."
The analysts are referring to an important means of pressure the Finns have at their disposal. In order for the ESM to go into effect, the Treaty of Lisbon, which governs the workings of the EU, must be modified. The change would not require countries to cede sovereignty on any additional issues to the EU, but it would nevertheless require ratification by the national parliaments of member states, including the Eduskunta in Helsinki.
So the future Finnish government actually does have the ability to block the increased funding of the EFSF and the creation of the ESM. But that remains speculative at this stage. Ognian Hishow, an expert on EU integration at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), doesn't believe that Finland would withdraw from the currency union or the EU. "Finnish companies wouldn't tolerate that," he said, adding that the financial risks would be too great. "Finland has so far done well with the euro," Hishow said. "Reason will prevail in the end."
'Overall Political Picture in Europe Has Worsened'
Nonetheless, the Finns could stir up trouble in terms of disbursing financial aid for Portugal. A unanimous decision is required by all euro-zone finance ministers in order to disburse loans under the current EFSF agreement. This is expected to take place in May. In the worst-case scenario, this would provide the Finnish finance minister with an opportunity to strike. He could demand that Finland would only agree to the bailout if Helsinki didn't have to participate financially.
Given the relatively small, single-digit billion volume of Finland's share of the bailout, this quasi veto power probably wouldn't threaten Portugal's bailout. But economist Gros at Center for European Policy Studies argues that the political symbolism of a pullout would be important, especially if other countries followed suit -- particularly countries that have been leaders in a united Europe until now. Gros says it could create huge problems if sentiment like that crossed over into Germany.
"The overall political picture in Europe has worsened," Gros said.
METADE DO PAÍS A VIVER DE EXPEDIENTES À CUSTA DO CONTRIBUINTE,UM ENORME MONTANTE DE POLÍTICOS, ASSESSORES, COMENTADORES, MEIA DÚZIA DE EMPRESAS DE CONSTRUÇÃO.E UM PAÍS SEM TÉCNICOS PORQUE EXTINGUIRAM O ENSINO TÉCNICO SALAZARISTA QUE ERA O ALFOBRE DO EMPREENDEDORISMO E EM SEU LUGAR E COM FARTURA CURSOS DE HUMANIDADES SEM EMPREGABILIDADE NENHUMA A NÃO SER NO "ESTADO" QUE TEM CRESCIDO E CRESCIDO...
QUASE NADA SE PRODUZ E EXPORTA.É TUDO DOUTORES.MENOS NA MEDICINA QUE ATÉ AÍ A CORRUPÇÃO ENTROU...O QUE SAI CARÍSSIMO AO PAÍS.
NÃO MUDEM DE REGIME NÃO.ESTES NÃO PRESTAM.VENHAM OUTROS E COM OUTRA CONSTITUIÇÃO.A DE 1933 FOI DE UM BOM ANO DE VINHO...
E SÓ COM UM NOVO 25 DE NOVEMBRO A COISA ENDIREITA...
OS SINDICALISTAS AMARELOS VÃO GOZAR IMENSO COM A AFRICANIZAÇÃO.PÁ OS PATRÕES SÓ QUEREM DAR TRABALHO AOS MAIS DESFAVORECIDOS...
Propostas à “troika”
Patrões querem tornar mais baratos os despedimentos
Patrões querem tornar mais baratos os despedimentos
O chefe da delegação da Comissão Europeia, Jürgen Kröger, deixa o ministério das Finanças após a reunião de ontem com os sindicatos portugueses. Hoje será a vez das confederações patronais José Sena Goulão, Lusa
Os patrões querem que a redução das indemnizações por despedimento passe a abranger todos os trabalhadores e não apenas os futuros contratados. Esta é uma das medidas de flexibilização do mercado laboral que serão propostas durante as reuniões de hoje entre as confederações do Comércio, Agricultura, Indústria e Turismo e os negociadores do FMI, BCE e Comissão Europeia.
COM TANTO AFRICANO EM BAIRRO SOCIAL A QUERER TRABALHAR BARATINHO E ANDAM OS PATRÕES A PAGAR CARÍSSIMO AS "CONQUISTAS DE ABRIL"?SE CALHAR OS ADEPTOS DO TODOS IGUAIS, TODOS DIFERENTES E DO "O MUNDO É UM SÓ" ESTAVAM À ESPERA DO NIVELAMENTO POR CIMA...
Patrões querem tornar mais baratos os despedimentos
Patrões querem tornar mais baratos os despedimentos
O chefe da delegação da Comissão Europeia, Jürgen Kröger, deixa o ministério das Finanças após a reunião de ontem com os sindicatos portugueses. Hoje será a vez das confederações patronais José Sena Goulão, Lusa
Os patrões querem que a redução das indemnizações por despedimento passe a abranger todos os trabalhadores e não apenas os futuros contratados. Esta é uma das medidas de flexibilização do mercado laboral que serão propostas durante as reuniões de hoje entre as confederações do Comércio, Agricultura, Indústria e Turismo e os negociadores do FMI, BCE e Comissão Europeia.
COM TANTO AFRICANO EM BAIRRO SOCIAL A QUERER TRABALHAR BARATINHO E ANDAM OS PATRÕES A PAGAR CARÍSSIMO AS "CONQUISTAS DE ABRIL"?SE CALHAR OS ADEPTOS DO TODOS IGUAIS, TODOS DIFERENTES E DO "O MUNDO É UM SÓ" ESTAVAM À ESPERA DO NIVELAMENTO POR CIMA...
ENTRETANTO POR CÁ A AFRICANIZAÇÃO CONTINUA A SER UMA RIQUEZA...
La Suisse à la merci d'une «union populiste»
Mots clés : Etrangers, immigration, SUISSE
Par Marie Maurisse
19/04/2011 | Mise à jour : 09:49 Réactions (170)
À six mois des élections fédérales, la droite comme les Verts font campagne sur les dangers de l'immigration.
À Genève
Giuliano Bignasca, président de la Lega, propose notamment de construire un mur sur la frontière italo-suisse.
Giuliano Bignasca, président de la Lega, propose notamment de construire un mur sur la frontière italo-suisse. Crédits photo : © Remy Steinegger / Reuters/X00270
Pour freiner l'immigration illégale en Suisse, Giuliano Bignasca souhaiterait construire un mur «comme il en existe un entre Israël et la Palestine». Le sien s'élèverait dans la ville de Chiasso, à la frontière avec l'Italie.
Le président à vie de la Lega, parti populiste de Suisse italienne qui a remporté les élections cantonales du 10 avril avec 30% des voix, ne recule pas devant les propositions radicales. Il a également menacé de renvoyer «à la maison» 13.000 frontaliers italiens accusés de faire grimper le chômage près de Lugano.
Ces idées pourraient paraître fantaisistes, mais le succès électoral de Giuliano Bignasca oblige ses opposants à le prendre au sérieux. D'autant que l'intégration des étrangers en Suisse devient un thème central du débat politique, à six mois des élections législatives au Parlement fédéral.
Selon un rapport officiel paru début avril, la Suisse comptera environ 10 millions d'habitants en 2035 (contre 7,6 millions aujourd'hui). Dans une interview à l'hebdomadaire alémanique Sonntag, le président de l'Union démocratique du centre (UDC), Toni Brunner, y voit un impact sur l'économie et la consommation énergétique du pays: «Si l'immigration se poursuit au même rythme qu'actuellement, nous ne pourrons pas éviter la construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires.»
Inquiétudes à gauche
Au détour d'un communiqué, l'UDC rappelle que dès le 1er mai, les Polonais ou les Slovaques pourront «s'établir librement en Suisse». Walter Wobmann et Christoffel Brändli, deux députés issus du même parti, ont chacun déposé une motion demandant de plafonner l'immigration à 0,2% de la population, contre environ 1% actuellement. Et, comme le mentionne Le Matin Dimanche, «toute la droite a suivi le mouvement, à quelques exceptions près».
La stigmatisation des étrangers n'est plus l'apanage de la droite. Ainsi, l'association Écologie et Population (Ecopop) est sur le point de lancer une initiative populaire pour limiter l'immigration à 0,2%, afin de réduire l'impact environnemental de la croissance démographique. «Nous ne voulons pas que l'extrême droite soit la seule à s'occuper de la politique migratoire», a déclaré Albert Fritsch, son porte-parole. Tout en refusant de cautionner cette démarche, les Verts planchent sur un moyen de sélectionner les entreprises étrangères qui voudraient s'installer en terre helvète. Andreas Ladner, politologue à l'Institut de hautes études en administration publique (Lausanne), confirme que «l'immigration touche aussi l'électorat de gauche, qui s'inquiète de la montée des loyers ou de la baisse des salaires, due à la concurrence de la main-d'œuvre étrangère».
Lundi, La Tribune de Genève envisageait une «union populiste au Parlement» autour de ces thématiques. La présidente de l'Union des Français en Suisse, Claudine Schmid, refuse de s'en affoler: «La Suisse a signé les accords bilatéraux et ceux de Schengen. Toutes ces propositions, qui ne sont faites que pour frapper les esprits, sont parfaitement inapplicables.»
E QUE NINGUÉM SE ATREVA A DIMINUIR O SOCIAL BÁSICO.ISTO É CASA, CAMA E ROUPA LAVADA.PARA A AFRICANIZAÇÃO EM TEMPOS DIFÍCEIS PODER CONTINUAR...FALTA DINHEIRO?AUMENTEM-SE OS IMPOSTOS E PENSÕES POR ENQUANTO ACIMA DOS 1500 EUROS BRUTOS...ESTA SOLUÇÃO ATÉ ESTAREM TODOS NO MESMO BAIRRO SOCIAL A CONFRATERNIZAR DURA E DURA...EMBORA JÁ TENHA VINDO A SER PRATICADA DE MANSINHO HÁ DEZ ANINHOS...
POR OUTRO LADO FICOU-SE A SABER PELA TV SARMENTO QUE "REVOLTAS" NÃO VAI HAVER.O PESSOAL É MANSO E ATÉ O 25 FOI COISA "CORPORATIVA".PORTANTO O POVO CONTINUA SERENO E VAI RECEBER BEM O PACOTINHO DE MARGARINA PSD QUE DEVE SER SEMPRE TRAZIDO EM MÃO PARA QUANDO A CLASSE POLÍTICA SE QUISER SERVIR...CLASSE ESSA QUE PARA ATRAIR OS MELHORES NADA TEM PERDIDO , NEM VAI PERDER...
Mots clés : Etrangers, immigration, SUISSE
Par Marie Maurisse
19/04/2011 | Mise à jour : 09:49 Réactions (170)
À six mois des élections fédérales, la droite comme les Verts font campagne sur les dangers de l'immigration.
À Genève
Giuliano Bignasca, président de la Lega, propose notamment de construire un mur sur la frontière italo-suisse.
Giuliano Bignasca, président de la Lega, propose notamment de construire un mur sur la frontière italo-suisse. Crédits photo : © Remy Steinegger / Reuters/X00270
Pour freiner l'immigration illégale en Suisse, Giuliano Bignasca souhaiterait construire un mur «comme il en existe un entre Israël et la Palestine». Le sien s'élèverait dans la ville de Chiasso, à la frontière avec l'Italie.
Le président à vie de la Lega, parti populiste de Suisse italienne qui a remporté les élections cantonales du 10 avril avec 30% des voix, ne recule pas devant les propositions radicales. Il a également menacé de renvoyer «à la maison» 13.000 frontaliers italiens accusés de faire grimper le chômage près de Lugano.
Ces idées pourraient paraître fantaisistes, mais le succès électoral de Giuliano Bignasca oblige ses opposants à le prendre au sérieux. D'autant que l'intégration des étrangers en Suisse devient un thème central du débat politique, à six mois des élections législatives au Parlement fédéral.
Selon un rapport officiel paru début avril, la Suisse comptera environ 10 millions d'habitants en 2035 (contre 7,6 millions aujourd'hui). Dans une interview à l'hebdomadaire alémanique Sonntag, le président de l'Union démocratique du centre (UDC), Toni Brunner, y voit un impact sur l'économie et la consommation énergétique du pays: «Si l'immigration se poursuit au même rythme qu'actuellement, nous ne pourrons pas éviter la construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires.»
Inquiétudes à gauche
Au détour d'un communiqué, l'UDC rappelle que dès le 1er mai, les Polonais ou les Slovaques pourront «s'établir librement en Suisse». Walter Wobmann et Christoffel Brändli, deux députés issus du même parti, ont chacun déposé une motion demandant de plafonner l'immigration à 0,2% de la population, contre environ 1% actuellement. Et, comme le mentionne Le Matin Dimanche, «toute la droite a suivi le mouvement, à quelques exceptions près».
La stigmatisation des étrangers n'est plus l'apanage de la droite. Ainsi, l'association Écologie et Population (Ecopop) est sur le point de lancer une initiative populaire pour limiter l'immigration à 0,2%, afin de réduire l'impact environnemental de la croissance démographique. «Nous ne voulons pas que l'extrême droite soit la seule à s'occuper de la politique migratoire», a déclaré Albert Fritsch, son porte-parole. Tout en refusant de cautionner cette démarche, les Verts planchent sur un moyen de sélectionner les entreprises étrangères qui voudraient s'installer en terre helvète. Andreas Ladner, politologue à l'Institut de hautes études en administration publique (Lausanne), confirme que «l'immigration touche aussi l'électorat de gauche, qui s'inquiète de la montée des loyers ou de la baisse des salaires, due à la concurrence de la main-d'œuvre étrangère».
Lundi, La Tribune de Genève envisageait une «union populiste au Parlement» autour de ces thématiques. La présidente de l'Union des Français en Suisse, Claudine Schmid, refuse de s'en affoler: «La Suisse a signé les accords bilatéraux et ceux de Schengen. Toutes ces propositions, qui ne sont faites que pour frapper les esprits, sont parfaitement inapplicables.»
E QUE NINGUÉM SE ATREVA A DIMINUIR O SOCIAL BÁSICO.ISTO É CASA, CAMA E ROUPA LAVADA.PARA A AFRICANIZAÇÃO EM TEMPOS DIFÍCEIS PODER CONTINUAR...FALTA DINHEIRO?AUMENTEM-SE OS IMPOSTOS E PENSÕES POR ENQUANTO ACIMA DOS 1500 EUROS BRUTOS...ESTA SOLUÇÃO ATÉ ESTAREM TODOS NO MESMO BAIRRO SOCIAL A CONFRATERNIZAR DURA E DURA...EMBORA JÁ TENHA VINDO A SER PRATICADA DE MANSINHO HÁ DEZ ANINHOS...
POR OUTRO LADO FICOU-SE A SABER PELA TV SARMENTO QUE "REVOLTAS" NÃO VAI HAVER.O PESSOAL É MANSO E ATÉ O 25 FOI COISA "CORPORATIVA".PORTANTO O POVO CONTINUA SERENO E VAI RECEBER BEM O PACOTINHO DE MARGARINA PSD QUE DEVE SER SEMPRE TRAZIDO EM MÃO PARA QUANDO A CLASSE POLÍTICA SE QUISER SERVIR...CLASSE ESSA QUE PARA ATRAIR OS MELHORES NADA TEM PERDIDO , NEM VAI PERDER...
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